On 27 September
1994 the responsible government organisation in Estonia, the Estonian Meteorological
and Hydrological Institute (EMHI), issued several weather prognoses and forecasts
for the Baltic Sea and for the Port of Tallinn. These were valid for 12, 24
and 48 hours and were broadcasted by the ESCO radio centre at 06.00 hours,
12.00 hours and 21.00 hours (all times UTC = Estonian time minus 2 hours)
and also sent by telex to the Port of Tallinn authority which took care of
the distribution to the vessels in port.
Additional
prognoses were sent twice a day via the NAVTEX system. Storm warnings were
issued according to necessity and distributed via the above explained channels.
A prognosis included the wind speed in m/sec, the wind direction, visibility,
precipitation, wave height and air temperature.
The ESTONIA
was equipped with a NAVTEX receiver, thus received the prognosis and the storm
warning through this system in addition to what was directly received from
the Port of Tallinn. Reportedly Stockholm Radio transmitted 2 weather forecasts
from MET CENTER Tallinn (EMHI) on 27 September 1994 which were apparently
also sent by telex from EMHI to the Port of Tallinn directly, viz.:
at 11.00 hours
UTC = 13.00 hours Estonian time,
when ESTONIA
was at her berth:
quote
WARNINGS
STRAIT OF MUHU ISLANDS SAAREMAA AND HIIUMAA
NORTHERN BALTIC
SOUTH-WESTERLY 12 TO 17 M/S=
GULF OF RIGA
CENTRAL BALTIC SOUTH-WESTERLY 12 TO 17 M/S
unquote at 18.00
hours UTC = 20.00 hours Estonian time,
when ESTONIA
was proceeding along the Estonian north coast.
"SW 10 - 15 m/sec." at 22.00 hours UTC = 24.00 hours Estonian time, when ESTONIA had left the shelter of the Island Hiiumaa already and was less than 1 hour apart from the catastrophe:
quote WARNINGS=
WESTERN PART GULF
OF FINLAND SOUTH-WESTERLY WESTERLY 12 TO 17 M/S=
EASTERN PART
GULF OF FINLAND SOUTH-WESTERLY WESTERLY 15 TO 20 M/S=
STRAIT OF MUHU
ISLANDS SAAREMAA AND HIIUMAA NORTHERN BALTIC SOUTH-WESTERLY 12 TO 17 M/S GUSTS
20 M/S=
GULF OF RIGA
CENTRAL BALTIC SOUTH-WESTERLY WESTERLY 12 TO 17 IN GUSTS 22 M/S=
unquote
The above forecast
is confirmed by the recordings of the station Ristna on 58°55' N, 22°04' E,
i.e.
ca. 30 nm SSE
of ESTONIA's position which were at 01.00 hours Estonian time = 23.00 hours
UTC :
Wind : W average
wind speed 16 m/sec. max. wind speed 21 m/sec. in gusts 22 m/sec.
The above stated information has been taken from the documentation submitted by EMHI to the JAIC, all of which is attached as Enclosure 18.233.
Special Prognosis
for "ESTONIA"
In addition to the above stated information received from the Estonian side,
the ESTONIA was a subscriber of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological
Institute (SMHI) and received daily by fax a so-called "special prognosis".
This had also been the case on the afternoon of the 27 September 1994 when
the SMHI sent, by fax at 13.11 Swedish time = 14.11 Estonian time, this "special
prognosis", the receipt of which was reportedly confirmed by the ESTONIA.
In this special forecast ESTONIA's command was advised that they had to expect
on the leg between north of the island Osmussaar and south of Bogskär, i.e.
between ca. 21.00-03.00 hours: »SW-W winds of 15-20 m/s with significant
wave heights of 2.5 - 3.5 m and max. wave heights of 5.5 m«.
The complete
wording is attached as Enclosure
18.234.
Furthermore, SMHI - sea weather reports were transmitted all day via Radio P1, the coastal stations and NAVTEX. In detail
- at 06.56 UTC 08.56
EST - Gale warning - from afternoon SW-ly 14-17, this
evening further increasing. Tonight 20. Central and Northern Baltic 25 m/s.
- at 08.05
SWE - SW 14-17, at night storm 25.09.05 EST
- at 13.00
SWE - SW 17-22, at night storm 25,14.00 EST
- at 15.55
SWE - same text as to Northern Baltic 16.55 EST
- at 18.56
UTC - Around West, 17-25. 20.56 EST
- at 21.50
SWE - Around West - 17 to storm 25. 22.50 EST
The above weather documentation is attached in one bundle as Enclosure 18.235 together with office translations.
In summary of the
above it has to be concluded that the command of the ESTONIA, at the latest
upon receipt of the "Special Prognosis" from the SMHI at 14.11 Estonian time,
should have been aware that storm force winds from SW-westerly direction with
wind speeds of up to 25 m/s corresponding to Bft. 9-10 and wave heights of
up to 5.5 m would be met in the open sea. This was about 3 hours before loading
commenced when the master was said to have been ashore and two groups of Estonian
"safety inspector trainees" led by two Swedish Sjöfartsverket inspectors were
inspecting the ferry accompanied by chief officer Juhan Herma and chief engineer
Lembit Leiger (see Chapter 15). The inspection ended only about 11/2 hours
before departure and had created considerable problems for the chief officer
and the chief engineer who were of course aware of the very severe deficiencies
of bow ramp and visor.
According to
the evidence available no particular precautions were taken by the deck crew
on the car deck. While the engine room crew got instructions from the chief
engineer to make seafast all moveable things in the engine room as bad weather
was to be expected. (Interview motorman Elmar Siegel - July 1996 - Enclosure
13.192).
Nevertheless,
the forecasted wind speeds and wave heights would be no reason for concern
to those in command of a vessel like the ESTONIA, provided, that the vessel
was in a seaworthy condition and that her cargo was stowed and secured in
accordance with good seamanship. Both criteria, however, were not fulfilled
by ESTONIA.
